保险业：日本寿险行业90年代利差损危机与复苏路径复盘

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (initial rating) [4] Core Views - The Japanese life insurance industry faced severe interest rate spread losses in the 1990s due to the bursting of the economic bubble, but eventually recovered around 2013 through adjustments in liability-side strategies, asset-side diversification, and government regulatory reforms [1][2][3] Liability-Side Adjustments - The industry adjusted the assumed interest rates and optimized product structures to reduce liability costs, with the assumed interest rate being lowered from 6.25% in 1990 to 2.0% by 2001 [1][23] - The surplus and policyholder dividend distribution ratio was reduced from 80% to 20%, increasing reserve provisions and mitigating interest rate spread risks [1][23] - Third-sector products such as health insurance and medical insurance became mainstream, driven by low fertility rates, aging populations, and declining birth rates [1][31] - Operational efficiency was improved through workforce reductions, organizational restructuring, and cost-cutting measures [1][36] Asset-Side Adjustments - The Financial Services Agency (FSA) lifted investment ratio restrictions on certain assets starting in 2012, allowing for more diversified and flexible asset allocation [2][39] - Japanese insurers increased overseas investments to leverage higher-yielding foreign assets, with foreign securities accounting for 31.44% of total investments by 2022 [2][42] - Insurers extended the duration of their assets, particularly by increasing holdings of long-term government bonds, which rose from 1.99% in 1990 to 9.88% by 2022 [46] Government Regulatory Reforms - The Japanese government transitioned from centralized management to a tripartite collaboration model, unifying financial regulation across banking, securities, and insurance sectors [48] - The introduction of the "Solvency Margin Ratio" in 1996 required insurers to maintain a ratio of 100%-200%, with stricter measures for those below 100% [50] - The establishment of the Policyholder Protection Fund in 1998 provided financial assistance to rescue insurers and protect policyholders during bankruptcies [53] Corporate Self-Rescue and Restructuring - Many Japanese life insurers transitioned from mutual to stock company structures to enhance capital-raising capabilities and operational flexibility [62][63] - Mergers and acquisitions were prevalent, with foreign capital playing a significant role in restructuring Japanese insurers, such as AIG's acquisition of Chiyoda Life [66] - Market concentration increased, with the top nine traditional life insurers accounting for nearly half of the annual premium income from effective policies [69] Market Performance and Trends - The Japanese life insurance market is highly concentrated, with the top nine insurers holding significant market shares in new policy premiums, effective policy premiums, and total assets [70] - The shift towards third-sector products and overseas investments has been a key driver of profitability and stability in the industry [31][42]