TCL TECH.(000100) 东方财富·2024-11-04 03:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to TCL Technology (000100) based on its strong growth potential in the display business and expected recovery in the photovoltaic sector [5] Core Views - TCL Technology's display business showed strong growth momentum in Q3 2024, with significant profit improvement in TCL Huaxing [1] - The photovoltaic business (TCL Zhonghuan) faced challenges but is expected to recover due to industry self-regulation [1] - Market share in TV panels remains strong globally, with leadership in 55-inch and 75-inch segments [1] - The acquisition of LG's production line is expected to enhance market position and competitiveness [1] Business Performance Display Business - TCL Huaxing achieved revenue of 76.956 billion yuan, up 25.74% YoY, with net profit of 4.443 billion yuan [1] - Large-size TV panel prices stabilized in October 2024, while IT panel prices entered a seasonal downward trend [1] - Market share in 55-inch and 75-inch TV panels ranked first globally, with 65-inch panels ranking second [1] - IT and automotive display market share increased significantly, with gaming monitors maintaining global leadership [1] Photovoltaic Business - TCL Zhonghuan reported revenue of 22.582 billion yuan, down 53.6% YoY, with a net loss of 6.478 billion yuan [1] - Industry self-regulation is expected to stabilize prices and accelerate industry consolidation [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 42.828 billion yuan, down 10.73% YoY but up 6.12% QoQ [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million yuan, down 58.29% YoY [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 11.45%, down 6.45 percentage points YoY [1] Market Position - TV panel market share remains second globally, with leadership in 55-inch and 75-inch segments [1] - IT and automotive display market share increased significantly, with gaming monitors maintaining global leadership [1] - LTPS smartphone panel shipments ranked second globally, with flexible OLED panel shipments growing steadily [1] Future Outlook - Revenue is forecasted to reach 166.548 billion yuan in 2024, 189.033 billion yuan in 2025, and 213.057 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.383 billion yuan in 2024, 5.311 billion yuan in 2025, and 8.622 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to be 0.13 yuan in 2024, 0.28 yuan in 2025, and 0.46 yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation - Current P/E ratio is 35.98x for 2023, expected to decrease to 34.52x in 2024, 15.49x in 2025, and 9.54x in 2026 [6] - P/B ratio is 1.53x for 2023, expected to decrease to 1.52x in 2024, 1.43x in 2025, and 1.31x in 2026 [6] - EV/EBITDA is 6.73x for 2023, expected to decrease to 5.53x in 2024, 4.55x in 2025, and 3.63x in 2026 [6]