ZPEC(603619) 长江证券·2024-11-04 04:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619 SH) [4] Core Views - Zhongman Petroleum achieved revenue of 3 051 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6 87% Net profit attributable to the parent company was 668 million yuan, up 12 65% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 1 133 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2 02% Net profit attributable to the parent company was 241 million yuan, up 41 62% year-on-year but down 5 84% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company's crude oil production continues to grow steadily, with the Wensu project producing 170,000 tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9 18% The Zhange project produced 53,000 tons, up 122 69% year-on-year [4] Crude Oil Reserves and Growth Potential - The Wensu oilfield has proven geological reserves of 30 11 million tons, with an additional 10 924 million tons of oil reserves preliminarily proven in 2023 [5] - The Zhange oilfield in Kazakhstan has combined C1+C2 geological reserves of 78 535 million tons [5] - The EBN block in Iraq has an original oil in place of approximately 12 365 billion barrels (1 766 billion tons) and dissolved gas of 543 1 billion cubic feet (153 8 billion cubic meters) [6] - The MF block in Iraq has an original oil in place of approximately 2 813 billion barrels (400 million tons) and dissolved gas of 731 billion cubic feet (20 7 billion cubic meters) [6] Financial Projections - Assuming Brent crude oil price of 75 USD/barrel, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 950 million yuan in 2024, 1 4 billion yuan in 2025, and 1 62 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - The PE ratio is projected to be 10 4X for 2024, 7 1X for 2025, and 6 1X for 2026 based on the closing price on November 1, 2024 [7] Iraq Project Development - The company signed development and production contracts for the EBN and MF blocks in Iraq on October 27, 2024, with a contract term of 20 years, extendable by 5 years [10] - The company is required to submit an initial development plan within 6 months of the contract's effective date and complete necessary operations within 3 years after the plan's approval [10]