Hoymiles(SH:688032) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-04 04:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the next six months, indicating a potential upside in stock price [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.266 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 10.12% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 246 million yuan, down 40.88% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved to 48.09%, an increase of 3.77 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin decreased to 19.37%, down 9.96 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from high growth in the European and North American markets due to favorable policy changes and anticipated demand recovery post interest rate cuts in the U.S. [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 358 million yuan, up 4.36% year-on-year but down 37.86% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 58 million yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year and 51.81% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved to approximately 73 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 95 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash expenditures related to procurement [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted to 2.14767 billion yuan and 2.68534 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 390.11 million yuan and 460.36 million yuan [2]. - A new forecast for 2026 indicates expected revenue of 3.22241 billion yuan and net profit of 535.95 million yuan [2]. Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42, 36, and 31 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 3.15 yuan for 2024, increasing to 4.33 yuan by 2026 [3][8].