青岛市写字楼市场运营情况分析及展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the office market in Qingdao Core Insights - The Qingdao office market is experiencing a significant increase in supply, with a peak of 1.7557 million square meters in 2021, followed by a decline in new supply in 2022 and 2023 [3][4] - The demand structure for office space in Qingdao remains stable, with major industries including professional services, technology, finance, real estate, and logistics [5] - The vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Qingdao has consistently been higher than that of major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, averaging over 20% in most years [6][7] - Rental prices for Grade A office buildings have been on a downward trend since 2016, currently at 104.02 yuan per square meter per month, the lowest since 2012 [8] Regional Environment Analysis - From 2008 to 2023, Qingdao's GDP growth has mirrored national trends, with an average annual growth rate of 11.11% from 2008 to 2015, followed by a slowdown due to external economic conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The population growth rate in Qingdao has faced pressure, with a range of 0.28% to 2.53% from 2008 to 2023, and a notable decline in the younger population segment [2] Historical Operation of the Office Market - The supply of Grade A office buildings in Qingdao saw limited growth from 2009 to 2015, with a significant increase in 2021, followed by a decrease in subsequent years [3][4] - The net absorption of office space in 2023 was approximately 158,000 square meters, with over 50,000 square meters attributed to state-owned enterprises [5] Future Outlook - The external environment indicates challenges for population and economic growth, with the 14th Five-Year Plan targeting a GDP growth rate of around 7% and a population of 11 million by 2025 [9] - Demand for office space is expected to improve due to policy support and urban development initiatives, but the influx of new projects may increase vacancy rates and pressure rental prices [10] - The report anticipates an additional 420,000 square meters of new supply in the next four years, primarily in the CBD areas of Qingdao [10][11]