均瑶健康：Q3收入短期承压，毛利率明显改善

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.42 million yuan, down 40.1% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 420 million yuan, a decline of 11.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.66 million yuan, down 57.9% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 29.8% for the first three quarters, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100 to 200 million yuan to enhance employee incentives, reflecting confidence in future growth [3] Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue from probiotic beverages was 490 million yuan (down 8%), probiotic foods 140 million yuan (up 18.1%), other beverages and foods 50 million yuan (up 24.8%), and commodity supply chain business 490 million yuan (down 25.8%) [2] - The e-commerce channel saw a remarkable growth of 93% year-on-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for probiotic beverages reached 40.4% due to refined operational management and cost structure optimization [3] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 4%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 60 million yuan, 80 million yuan, and 90 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.11 yuan, 0.13 yuan, and 0.15 yuan [3][4] - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 53x, 44x, and 37x for the same years [3][4] Business Segment Projections - Revenue growth for probiotic beverages is expected to be 2%, 5%, and 5% from 2024 to 2026, with a gross margin maintained at 40% [7] - Probiotic foods are projected to grow by 50% for both 2024 and 2025, and 30% in 2026, with a gross margin of 50% [7] - The commodity supply chain is expected to see a revenue decline of 10% in 2024, followed by growth of 8% in 2025 and 2026, with a gross margin of 10% [7]