食品饮料行业：飞天批价回升，大幅提振市场信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on the recovery potential of the liquor sector [2]. Core Insights - The recent increase in the price of Feitian Moutai has significantly boosted market confidence, indicating that the liquor industry may have reached its bottom [2][3]. - Macro data shows a continued growth trend in consumption-related metrics, with retail sales and dining revenue increasing by 3.2% and 3.1% year-on-year in September 2024, respectively [8][11]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government economic policies on the liquor sector, suggesting that the industry is likely to benefit from a recovering economy [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Macro Data Update - Retail sales and dining revenue showed year-on-year increases of 3.2% and 3.1% in September 2024, while retail sales of tobacco and alcohol decreased by 0.7% [8][11]. - M2 money supply grew by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating stable liquidity in the market [11]. 2. Liquor Price Data - As of October 31, 2024, the wholesale price of original box Feitian Moutai reached approximately 2,170 RMB per bottle, while the price for loose bottles was around 2,150 RMB [12][15]. - Other notable liquor prices include Wuliangye at approximately 950 RMB and Guojiao 1573 at about 860 RMB, both remaining stable [12][15]. 3. Beer Volume and Price Data - In September 2024, domestic beer production increased by 1.4% year-on-year, although cumulative production for the first nine months of the year decreased by 1.5% [17]. - The average import price of barley fell to 250 USD per ton, a 17% decrease year-on-year, benefiting the beer sector by reducing cost pressures [19][20]. 4. Dairy Product Price Data - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas remained stable at approximately 3.13 RMB per kilogram [23]. - The average auction prices for whole and skim milk powder were 3,553 USD and 2,745 USD per ton, with slight decreases from the previous period [23]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the liquor sector, recommending stocks such as Wuliangye (000858), Luzhou Laojiao (000568), and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) for their strong sales performance and brand strength [3][32]. - In the beer sector, Qingdao Beer (600600) is highlighted as a potential investment due to favorable cost conditions from declining barley prices [3][32].