有色金属：海外供应端扰动，或将提升稀土价格

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - Disruptions in overseas supply may lead to an increase in rare earth prices. The Kachin Independence Army in Myanmar has announced control over rare earth mining areas, which could impact exports [2] - In the first nine months of this year, China imported approximately 39.54% of its total rare earth imports from Myanmar, totaling 39,640 tons [2] - If the closure of exports continues for more than two months, domestic separation plants may face raw material shortages. Prices for various rare earth products have shown slight increases in November compared to October [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have set total control indicators for rare earth mining and separation for 2024, with increases of 5.88% and 4.16% respectively compared to 2023 [2] - The new Rare Earth Management Regulations, effective from October 1, 2024, aim to enhance the protection and sustainable development of rare earth resources [2] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Dynamics - The Kachin Independence Army's control over mining areas in Myanmar may disrupt rare earth exports, affecting global supply [2] - China's significant reliance on Myanmar for rare earth imports highlights the potential impact of geopolitical events on supply chains [2] Price Trends - Rare earth product prices have shown slight increases in November, indicating a potential upward trend due to supply disruptions [2] - Specific price changes include: - Lanthanum oxide at 4,100 CNY/ton, stable from October - Cerium oxide at 7,600 CNY/ton, stable from October - Neodymium oxide at 416,600 CNY/ton, up 0.22% from October - Neodymium metal at 526,000 CNY/ton, up 0.19% from October [2] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the Rare Earth Management Regulations is expected to promote high-quality development in the rare earth industry and mitigate disorderly capacity expansion [2] - The regulations emphasize the protection of rare earth resources and encourage technological advancements in the industry [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Jinli Permanent Magnet due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics and continued growth in downstream sectors like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [2]