TAIJI GROUP(600129) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 05:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure due to multiple factors, but a return to stable growth is expected after the base disturbances are cleared [2]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.434 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.36%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 545 million yuan, down 28.10% [2]. - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.11, 1.47, and 1.90 yuan respectively, down from the previous estimates of 1.72, 2.10, and 2.61 yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.617 billion yuan, a decline of 16.44%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 73.82% [2]. - The pharmaceutical industrial segment reported revenue of 6.188 billion yuan, down 25.24%, with a gross margin of 61.11%, a decrease of 4.04 percentage points [2]. - The report highlights that the core product sales were below expectations due to high inventory levels and changes in sales recognition [2]. Segment Analysis - Pharmaceutical industrial revenue: 6.188 billion yuan (-25.24%), with significant declines in core products [2]. - Pharmaceutical commercial revenue: 5.109 billion yuan (-11.21%) [2]. - Traditional Chinese medicine resources revenue: 724 million yuan (-13.77%) [2]. - Health and international business revenue: 355 million yuan (+65.61%) [2]. Margin and Cost Management - Q3 2024 gross margin was 29.13%, down 16.51 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in revenue structure [2]. - The selling expense ratio decreased by 14.77 percentage points to 15.61% due to changes in accounting and proactive optimization [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that product revenue and the impact of sales recognition changes will gradually clear, leading to a return to stable growth by 2025 [2]. - The management changes are expected to drive new growth opportunities [2].