家用电器业：2024年以旧换新系列跟踪报告-本轮国补，哪类企业最受益

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the home appliance industry, consistent with the previous rating [4] Core Views - The current round of national subsidies favors large appliance leaders, especially those with advanced digital and O2O capabilities [2] - The policy execution varies significantly across regions, leading to different impacts on companies based on their understanding of subsidy rules [3] - Key factors for local governments include economic efficiency, fraud prevention, and consumer fairness [3][9] - The subsidy policy is expected to drive industry consolidation, benefiting companies with strong financial capabilities and nationwide coverage [3][30] Subsidy Policy Analysis Freedom 1: Traditional and Thematic Categories - Eight traditional categories (e.g., refrigerators, washing machines) and four thematic categories (e.g., dishwashers, coffee machines) are prioritized for subsidies [10][19] - High-penetration and high-price products are more likely to benefit, with potential expansion to more provinces [19][20] Freedom 2: Purchase Scenarios - Companies with nationwide coverage and strong logistics (e.g., unified warehousing and distribution) have a significant advantage [3][22] - Online platforms like JD and Tmall play a crucial role in subsidy distribution, with JD's self-operated model being particularly effective [26][34] Freedom 3: Payment Convenience - Payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay enhance consumer convenience and subsidy efficiency [45] - Regions with more flexible payment options (e.g., no restrictions on IP or delivery addresses) see higher subsidy utilization [26] Investment Recommendations - Large Appliance Leaders: Companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense are expected to benefit significantly due to their digital and O2O capabilities [3][44] - Kitchen Appliance Companies: With recent real estate policy relaxations, companies like Vatti and Robam are poised for growth [3] - Cleaning and Water Purification Companies: Firms such as Roborock, Ecovacs, and Deerama are likely to benefit from potential category expansions [3] Subsidy Impact and Trends - As of October 15, 2024, the subsidy policy has driven CNY 131.7 billion in central subsidies, with an average daily subsidy of CNY 2 billion [49][51] - The subsidy ratio for first-tier energy-efficient products is approximately 19%, close to the 20% subsidy target [51] - The policy has shown strong consumer traction, with an average of 1.4 appliances purchased per consumer under the subsidy program [52]