CSI Solar(SH:688472) Guohai Securities·2024-11-04 07:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with historical highs in energy storage shipments and unit net profit [3][4]. - The company has prioritized profit stability in its sales strategy, focusing on high-margin markets, particularly in North America [4][6]. - Despite a year-on-year revenue decline, the company has shown resilience with a sequential increase in net profit over three consecutive quarters [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 34.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.955 billion yuan, down 31.2% [3]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 12.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and a sequential decline of 1.1%, while net profit was 716 million yuan, down 22% year-on-year but up 8.3% sequentially [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company shipped 22.9 GW of components in the first three quarters, a slight year-on-year increase, with Q3 shipments reaching 8.4 GW, up 2.4% sequentially [4]. - The company has increased its shipments to the North American market, which accounted for over 30% of Q3 shipments, emphasizing a strategy of prioritizing profitability over volume [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve over 7 GWh in large-scale energy storage shipments for the full year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of more than five times [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 50.4 billion, 57.9 billion, and 68.1 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 2.8 billion, 3.8 billion, and 5.0 billion yuan [6][7].