Roborock(688169) 国联证券·2024-11-04 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Stone Technology [4][6]. Core Views - Stone Technology's performance has been affected by multiple factors, including revenue recognition issues, increased brand promotion, and intensified competition. However, with favorable subsidy policies, the company is expected to see improved performance in the fourth quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Stone Technology achieved revenue of 7.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.472 billion yuan, up 8.22% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.186 billion yuan, down 5.40% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 2.591 billion yuan, an increase of 11.91% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 43.40% to 351 million yuan [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The company experienced double-digit revenue growth despite a narrowing growth rate quarter-on-quarter. Domestic sales showed rapid growth, while international sales, particularly in North America, continued to perform well due to successful entry into major retail channels. However, European sales may face challenges due to a shift from a distribution model to a self-operated model, delaying revenue recognition [6][8]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 4.72 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to price adjustments and increased competition. The sales expense ratio increased by 7.29 percentage points due to heightened brand marketing efforts and the transition to a self-operated model in Europe. Overall, the net profit margin fell by 13.26 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a decline in performance [6][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by favorable policies, with significant sales growth observed in the online market. The company is actively expanding its presence in various channels, which is expected to boost revenue. Despite short-term profit declines due to competitive pressures, the company is expected to achieve stable profit growth in the long term [6][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects revenues of 11 billion yuan, 13.475 billion yuan, and 16.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.205 billion yuan, 2.502 billion yuan, and 2.846 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 7%, 13%, and 14% [6][7].