金禾实业：甜味剂低点已过，看好业绩持续修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][6]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of recovery in its performance, particularly in the sweetener segment, with expectations for continued profit rebound due to price increases [2][4]. - The company plans to invest 2 billion RMB in a new gasification project to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage sector, with a current stock price of 22.95 RMB as of November 1, 2024, and a market capitalization of 13.005 billion RMB [1]. - Major shareholders include Anhui Jinrui Investment Group Co., Ltd., holding 43.95% of shares [1]. Recent Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.043 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 1%, and a net profit of 409 million RMB, down 27% year-over-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.504 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year and a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter [2]. Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The sweetener market has seen a price recovery after a two-year low, with significant price increases for key products like sucralose and acesulfame potassium [4]. - The average price for sucralose in Q3 was 123,000 RMB per ton, showing a 17% increase from the previous quarter [4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 641 million RMB, 796 million RMB, and 964 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected growth rates of -9%, +24%, and +21% [6]. - The new gasification project is anticipated to generate an annual revenue of 940 million RMB once operational [5].