下周解禁市值超130亿元，处于全年最低位。 锂亚硫酰氯电池进出口监管措施优化 2025年12月12日，工业和信息化部会同商务部、海关总署联合印发《关于优化锂亚硫酰氯电池进出口监 管措施的通知》，决定自2026年1月1日起，第三类监控化学品亚硫酰氯灌装含量不超过1千克的单个锂 亚硫酰氯电池或电池组无需办理《监控化学品进出口核准单》和《两用物项和技术进出口许可证》，其 他锂亚硫酰氯电池或电池组仍按有关规定办理进出口审批手续。 工业和信息化部表示，此次优化监管措施有利于监控化学品监管措施与国际接轨，提升贸易便利化水 平，更好融入国际产业链供应链，增强国际竞争力，助力锂亚硫酰氯电池及相关产业高质量发展。 在出口方面，2024年中国锂亚硫酰氯电池的出口额达到了35亿元人民币，同比增长了18.2%。主要出口 市场包括欧美、东南亚以及中东地区。美国是中国最大的出口目的地，占总出口额的30%，德国和日本 分别占15%和12%。 上市公司方面，亿纬锂能（维权）是锂亚硫酰氯电池龙头企业，公司拥有锂亚硫酰氯电池、电池电容器 （SPC）两款国家级制造业单项冠军产品。鹏辉能源产品线涵盖锂亚硫酰氯等一次电池。 此外，亚硫酰氯（又名"氯化 ...

人民财讯12月12日电，据金禾实业（002597）12月12日官微，12月11日，金禾实业与安徽大学合作共建 的"全固态电池材料联合实验室"正式揭牌，双方将依托实验室构建"产学研用"一体化创新平台，加速固 态电池新能源技术成果的产业化落地进程，主要研发方向包括高纯度电解质原料硫化锂、适用于固态体 系的专用粘结剂与界面改性技术等。 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift in supply chain dynamics due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in semiconductor materials, leading to accelerated domestic replacements [5][6] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [8][9] - The report highlights a potential upturn in the chemical industry as supply-side constraints and rising demand could enhance profitability and dividend yields for leading companies [6][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a 24.0% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 16.9% [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on low-cost expansion opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as sectors like tire manufacturing and pesticide formulations [6][9] - Emphasis on sectors with improving market conditions, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and polyester filament [9][10] Price Trends - Recent price increases for key products include chromium oxide green at 35,500 CNY/ton and metallic chromium at 84,000 CNY/ton, both up by 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][16] - The report notes a tightening supply for isooctanol, with prices rising due to increased demand and production disruptions [13] Company Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical, with positive earnings forecasts and attractive price-to-earnings ratios [28]

| 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 限售股类型 | 解禁股数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 湖北能源 | 000883 | 股权激励限售流通 | 31.47万 | | 亚钾国际 | 000893 | 股权激励限售流通 | 240万 | | 南方航空 | 600029 | 增发A股原股东配售上市 | 8.04亿 | | 宁波韵升 | 600366 | 增发A股法人配售上市 | 3599.9万 | | 华兰生物 | 002007 | 股权激励限售流通 | 132.43万 | | 久其软件 | 002279 | 股权激励限售流通 | 244.78万 | | 吉峰科技 | 300022 | 股权激励限售流通 | 25万 | | 海默科技 | 300084 | 股权激励限售流通 | 270.9万 | | 金禾实业 | 002597 | 股权激励限售流通 | 54.64万 | | 维力医疗 | 603309 | 股权激励限售流通 | 3.3万 | | 艾德生物 | 300685 | 股权激励限售流通 | 153.63万 | | 海晨股份 | 300873 | 增发A股原股东配售上市 | 1726 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]

Group 1: Core Insights - The financing of listed companies in the sugar substitute industry primarily aims to enhance production capacity [1] - The majority of external investments by representative companies focus on expanding upstream and downstream operations [1][6] Group 2: Financing and Investment - The main financing methods for listed companies include IPOs, private placements, and convertible bonds, with a focus on new projects and capacity enhancement [1] - Notable external investments include significant amounts such as 100 million RMB by Sanyuan Bio and 10 million RMB by Hainan Baolijian [2][3][4] Group 3: Industry Parks and Development - The number of sugar substitute industrial parks in China is limited, with major parks located in Shandong, which is recognized as a global production base [7][8] - The Dezhou High-tech Zone in Shandong has a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and a domestic market share of over 70% [8] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the sugar substitute industry are primarily driven by midstream companies seeking to expand scale and secure upstream resources [9][12] - Key acquisitions include Huakang's purchase of Henan Yuxin Sugar Alcohol Co. for 1.098 billion RMB, aimed at increasing market share [12]

Core Insights - The trend of young consumers moving away from "sugar-free" products is evident, with a noticeable slowdown in the growth of sugar-free tea sales and a decline in the popularity of sugar substitutes [5][12][14] Industry Overview - Sugar-free tea sales growth has significantly decreased, with sales growth rates from April to September 2023 being 3.9%, 7%, 19.9%, 19.5%, 8.5%, and 6.3%, all lower than the same periods in the previous year [2] - The average price of sugar-free tea has been on the rise, increasing from 5.1 yuan per piece in 2023 to 5.6 yuan per piece by 2025, indicating that despite higher prices, total sales growth is slowing [2] - The market is dominated by established brands like Nongfu Spring and Suntory, which together hold 87.3% market share as of September 2023, up 6.4% from the previous year [7] - The second-tier brands' market share has decreased from 11.3% to 7.4%, while the third-tier brands' share has shrunk from 5.1% to 3.4%, highlighting the intensifying head effect in the industry [7][9] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer preferences indicates that the younger generation is moving away from extreme health consciousness towards a more indulgent lifestyle, seeking comfort in sugary beverages [5][12] - The demand for sugar substitutes, particularly erythritol, has also faced challenges, with a reported oversupply in the market as of May 2023, where domestic production capacity reached 380,000 tons per year against a global demand of only 173,000 tons [2][14] Product Innovation - There has been a lack of new hit products in the sugar-free tea market, with established products like unsweetened oolong and jasmine tea dominating nearly 70% of the market share [9] - The innovation in the sugar-free tea sector has stagnated, with brands focusing on minor innovations around existing products rather than developing new ones, leading to potential homogenization and price competition [9][11] - In contrast, the sugary tea segment has seen a surge in new product launches, with sugary tea products outnumbering sugar-free tea products significantly in recent months [10] Supplier Challenges - Suppliers of sugar substitutes are experiencing significant operational pressures, with major companies like San Yuan Bio reporting a 7.54% decline in total revenue and a 16.8% drop in net profit for the first three quarters of the year [14][19] - The industry is facing a broader trend of declining demand, leading to increased competition and financial strain on suppliers, many of whom are exploring alternative products and markets to mitigate losses [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The price fluctuations of sucralose are primarily influenced by changes in industry supply and demand, intensified market competition, and raw material costs [1] Company Response - The company has implemented measures to actively respond to market conditions, including strengthening supply chain collaboration, optimizing procurement and production plans, and advancing technological upgrades to reduce unit production costs [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of long-term cooperation with core customers to stabilize order demand [1] Industry Outlook - The company believes that its integrated supply chain advantages and ongoing cost control capabilities will enable it to effectively navigate market fluctuations and seize opportunities during industry recovery [1]

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 金禾实业11月19日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司管理层高度重视业绩波动， 已从内部管理、成本控制及战略执行等多方面进行复盘与优化。外部环境变化虽是影响因素之一，公司 更聚焦于自身改进，包括：优化产品结构与资源配置；加快新项目投产与效益释放；强化市场开拓与客 户服务。公司相信通过持续的管理优化和战略执行，公司经营状况将逐步改善，为投资者创造更好回 报。 ...