9月PMI数据点评：制造业景气度回升，供强需弱格局未变

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.80% in September, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The production index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.20%, indicating a return to the expansion zone[8] - The new orders index rose by 1.0 percentage point to 49.90%, showing a recovery after five consecutive months of decline[8] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New export orders index fell to 47.50%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating limited overseas demand impact on domestic manufacturing[10] - The import index decreased to 46.10%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points, reflecting weak external demand[10] - Domestic demand is recovering, supported by incremental policies, which is expected to improve market expectations and production recovery[10] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.10%, while the factory price index rose by 2.0 percentage points to 44.00%[12] - The gap between raw material and factory prices narrowed slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 1.10 percentage points[12] - Economic momentum indicator (new orders index minus finished goods inventory index) rose to 1.50 percentage points, indicating a positive trend[12] Group 4: Business Activity by Company Size - In September, the PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises rose by 0.20, 0.50, and 2.10 percentage points, respectively[16] - Small enterprises showed a higher recovery rate compared to large enterprises, indicating a convergence in business activity levels[16] Group 5: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction[17] - The service sector PMI fell to 49.9%, reflecting a decline in service consumption during the off-peak season[17] - The construction sector showed expansion with a business activity index of 50.7%, indicating positive future expectations[17] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the economic fundamentals may begin to show signs of recovery starting in September, supported by effective policy implementation[18] - A comprehensive recovery in asset prices is anticipated as incremental policies are expected to take effect[18] - Short-term pressure on the bond market is expected to increase, while the cost-effectiveness of equity asset allocation is improving[18]