美国经济：就业显示放缓迹象

Employment Data - In October 2024, non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000, significantly below the expected 100,000[1] - The previous two months' data was revised down by 112,000, with August and September figures adjusted to 78,000 and 223,000 respectively[1] - Private sector employment experienced its first month-on-month decline since December 2020, decreasing by 28,000 jobs[1] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.05% to 4.14%, despite a small drop in the labor force participation rate from 62.7% to 62.6%[1] - The average duration of unemployment increased to 22.9 weeks, the highest in nearly 31 months[1] - The labor force participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) fell from 84% in July to 83.5% in October[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Job losses in goods-producing sectors totaled 37,000, with durable goods manufacturing alone losing 47,000 jobs due to strikes[1] - Service sector job growth plummeted from 169,000 to just 9,000, marking the lowest level since December 2020[1] - Healthcare job growth slowed significantly, with new jobs dropping from 80,000 in September to 51,000 in October[1] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, with a further reduction of 100 basis points anticipated next year[1] - The overall employment data suggests a continued slowdown in the labor market, supporting a gradual easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve[1]