策略研究周度报告：市场波动可能加剧，景气消费品轮动接力

Market Viewpoints - The report indicates that significant domestic and international events are expected to increase market volatility, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged [1][7][10] - The upcoming events include the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the US election results, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which may lead to heightened market fluctuations [1][10] - Recent data shows that the October PMI has rebounded to the growth line, indicating a recovery in social confidence, although there are uncertainties regarding the scale of new policies to be announced [10][12] Industry Configuration - The report highlights that the growth technology sector has shown signs of overheating, while cyclical consumer goods are expected to take over as the next focus for investment [1][14] - Key sectors that may benefit in the short term include automotive, home appliances, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, which are supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and potential policy catalysts [1][14] - The report notes that after a period of rapid rotation within the growth sector, there may be a shift towards other sectors, particularly those that have lagged behind but show signs of improvement in Q3 earnings [14][15] Market Hotspots - The report discusses the impact of the US election and economic data, noting increased uncertainty and a divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7][8] - It also addresses domestic policy expectations, indicating that while there is optimism regarding new policies, the actual impact may not exceed market expectations due to high anticipation [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming announcements from the National People's Congress, particularly regarding debt management and support for key sectors [11][12] Trading Dynamics - The report analyzes the trading behavior of micro-cap stocks, indicating that after a period of high turnover, these stocks typically experience a phase of adjustment followed by potential rebounds [20][21] - Historical data suggests that micro-cap stocks often see a significant adjustment phase approximately 1.5 to 2 months after reaching high turnover rates, with the current market possibly entering a similar phase [21][24] - The report notes that the current turnover rate for micro-cap stocks is at a historically high level, indicating a potential for overheating in this segment [21][22]