政策窗口临近，风格或将切换至顺周期板块

Core Insights - The report indicates a potential shift in market style towards cyclical sectors as policy windows approach, with signs of market style switching observed post-National Day, particularly in the real estate sector [2][9][12] - Economic data for October shows improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion after five months, driven by policy effects and improving market sentiment [11][12] - The report highlights a divergence in nominal and actual inventory trends, with actual inventory showing signs of passive replenishment due to declining PPI affecting corporate revenue growth [10][11] Market Trends - The report notes that after the National Day holiday, the technology sector had been performing well, but recent economic data has led to a decline in this sector, while cyclical sectors like real estate have shown upward movement [2][9] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming policy window, particularly the National People's Congress, is likely to heighten market speculation regarding potential policy stimulus [2][12] Economic Indicators - October's manufacturing PMI improved to 50.1 from 49.8, marking a return to the expansion zone, with production index rising to 52.0, indicating increased business confidence [11][12] - The report mentions that the nominal inventory growth rate has decreased to 4.6% in September, while actual inventory growth has increased to 7.4%, indicating a potential recovery in demand [10][11] Sector Performance - The financial sector showed resilience in Q3, leading to a positive growth rate for the overall A-share market for the first time in three quarters, while technology and growth sectors continue to face pressure [5][19] - The report suggests focusing on industries with high profit improvement and low valuations, such as agriculture, non-bank financials, and machinery, as they are expected to perform better in the current market environment [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report advises monitoring three main lines of investment: the potential for valuation recovery in undervalued assets, the direction of incremental fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, and the expected rebound in technology growth sectors as market sentiment improves [6][23]