方盛制药：业绩超预期，持续聚焦创新中药主业

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.348 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 228 million yuan, up 60.66% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 163 million yuan, reflecting a 33.87% increase [2][4]. - The company is focusing on its core business of innovative traditional Chinese medicine, with significant growth in key products, particularly in chronic disease medications [3][4]. - The company has seen robust growth in its core products, with the sales of its new products, such as the children's cough granules and bone health tablets, achieving rapid market penetration [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue grew by 14.31%, driven by strong performance in core products. However, revenue from medical services and other segments declined by 27.59% due to the exclusion of certain subsidiaries from consolidation [3][4]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.899 billion, 2.216 billion, and 2.564 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.6%, 16.7%, and 15.7% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 285 million, 322 million, and 400 million yuan, with growth rates of 53%, 13%, and 24% [5][6]. Product Performance - The cardiovascular segment reported revenue of 381 million yuan, a growth of 41.28%, with a gross margin increase to 81.57%. Other segments, such as musculoskeletal and respiratory medications, also showed positive growth, while some areas like pediatric and gynecological medications experienced declines [4][6]. - The new products have achieved significant sales milestones, with the children's cough granules generating approximately 60 million yuan in sales, a year-on-year increase of over 130%, and the bone health tablets achieving around 86 million yuan, up over 340% [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast of 18.6 for 2024, decreasing to 13.2 by 2026, indicating an expected improvement in valuation as the company scales its operations [3][5]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 12% in 2023 to 17.4% by 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [6].