VEICHI(688698) 东吴证券·2024-11-04 07:21Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 24Q3 revenue increased by 20% YoY, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 52% YoY, exceeding market expectations [2] - Overseas non-Russian growth continues to exceed expectations, with profitability further improving [1] - Overseas revenue in 24Q1-3 reached 320 million yuan, up 38.6% YoY, with non-Russian regions (Turkey, Morocco, North Africa) expected to double in 24Q3 [3] - Core downstream performance is strong, with market share steadily increasing and significant operational alpha [4] - Profitability is expected to improve further, with gross margin rising to 40.5% in 24Q1-3 and 42.6% in 24Q3, driven by higher-margin overseas business and increased self-sufficiency in servo encoders and motors [2] Financial Performance - 24Q1-3 revenue: 1.16 billion yuan, up 22.4% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders: 210 million yuan, up 34.1% YoY [2] - 24Q3 revenue: 390 million yuan, up 20.3% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders: 80 million yuan, up 51.9% YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 gross margin: 40.5%, up 2.6 pct YoY; 24Q3 gross margin: 42.6%, up 5.5 pct YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 operating expense ratio: 22.68%, up 2.58 pct YoY; 24Q3 operating expense ratio: 24.51%, up 3.96 pct YoY [2] Overseas Market Performance - Overseas revenue in 24Q1-3: 320 million yuan, up 38.6% YoY, with non-Russian regions expected to double in 24Q3 [3] - Russian demand declined again, accounting for less than 10% of overseas revenue in 24Q3 [3] - Full-year overseas revenue is expected to increase by over 40% YoY, driven by energy crises and drought conditions in non-Russian regions [3] Core Downstream and Market Share - Core downstream sectors (textile, machine tools) outperformed the company's average growth rate, benefiting from terminal export demand [4] - 24Q1-3 inverter/servo industry sales declined by 7.7%/5.1% YoY, while the company's inverter/servo revenue increased by 24%/22% YoY [4] - Domestic inverter/servo revenue in 24Q1-3 increased by 5%/22% YoY, with market share steadily rising [4] - Long-term growth potential in new markets and businesses such as 3C, shipbuilding, ports, and medical sectors [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast adjusted to 279/337/405 million yuan, up 46%/21%/20% YoY [4] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 1.32/1.59/1.92 yuan per share [1] - 2024-2026 P/E ratio: 25x/20x/17x [4] Financial Data - Closing price: 32.36 yuan [7] - Market capitalization: 6.84 billion yuan [7] - P/B ratio: 3.28x [7] - Net asset per share: 9.87 yuan [8] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 27.33% [8]