10月经济数据预测：景气修复前夕

Economic Overview - The economic trend in October remains stable and improving, with industrial production expected to grow by approximately 5.8% year-on-year[2] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 3.3%, driven by strong manufacturing investment growth of 9.3%[3] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment continues to show high growth, while infrastructure investment (excluding power) is expected to decline to 3.8%[3] - Real estate investment is expected to marginally improve, with a projected decline of -10.0%[3] Consumer Trends - Retail sales are anticipated to grow by 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending driven by various factors including holiday promotions[4] Price Movements - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 0.5% year-on-year, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline to -2.2%[5] Trade Performance - Exports are forecasted to grow by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports are expected to decline by -1.3%[6] Financial Data - New credit issuance is estimated at 500 billion, with total social financing expected to reach 1.6 trillion[7] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing is projected to decrease to 7.9%[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include tighter liquidity beyond expectations and domestic policy effects falling short of expectations[25]