Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Guoyuan Securities·2024-11-04 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with expected net profits of 4.37 billion, 4.85 billion, and 5.22 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 2.37%, 10.95%, and 7.74% [4]. Core Views - The demand for beer is under short-term pressure, leading to a slight decline in sales volume, although the product mix and average price remain resilient [2]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 28.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.52%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.99 billion yuan, up 1.67% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of beer for the first three quarters was 6.785 million kiloliters, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, with the main brand Qingdao Beer seeing a decline of 6.2% [2]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin improved, leading to an increase in net profit margin for the first three quarters, with net profit margin at 17.23% and gross profit margin at 41.76%, both showing year-on-year increases [3]. - The average selling price per thousand liters remained stable at 4,268 yuan for the first three quarters, with a slight decrease to 4,126 yuan in the third quarter [2]. - The report indicates that the sales expense ratio increased in the third quarter, contributing to a slight decline in net profit margin to 15.16% [3]. Future Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.20 yuan, 3.55 yuan, and 3.83 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 19, and 18 [4][6]. - The report anticipates a revenue of 31.81 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.27% [6].