2024年H2有色行业总结与展望

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metal industry is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic policies on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, with expectations of price increases due to rising demand in industrial applications, especially in photovoltaics [4][10] - The silver supply is projected to slightly decline in 2024, while demand is expected to increase, leading to a widening supply gap [6][9] - The copper market is experiencing a mild price increase due to economic recovery and low inventory levels, with expectations of stable supply and demand dynamics [16][23] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a shift in profitability towards the smelting end, with strong fundamentals supporting alumina prices [25][28] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are influenced by the market's anticipation of Trump's potential presidency, which could lead to increased tariffs and a higher deficit, thus benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Silver supply has remained stable over the past nine years, with a slight decrease in 2023 and a projected further decline in 2024 [6][9] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to drive growth, with a significant increase in demand noted in 2023 [8][10] Copper - The copper market is seeing a recovery in prices, supported by low inventory levels and increased demand from various sectors [16][19] - Global copper concentrate production is expected to grow modestly in 2024, with a projected output of 22.67 million tons [23][24] Aluminum - The alumina market is experiencing a shift, with domestic prices rising due to supply-demand imbalances, and the profitability is moving towards the smelting sector [25][28] - The report anticipates that the aluminum market will face limited growth in 2025, with a potential shift in profitability dynamics [28]