美国大选跟踪：摇摆州选情依然胶着

Group 1: Election Tracking - The U.S. presidential election is highly competitive, with key swing states showing tight races, particularly in the southern "Sun Belt" and midwestern "Rust Belt" regions[2] - In the southern states, Trump leads in four states, but all margins are within 3%, indicating potential reversals[6] - In the midwestern states, Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania, while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin[6] Group 2: Polling Insights - Recent polling shows Harris leading by 0.1% in Wisconsin and by 0.6% in Michigan, while Trump leads by 0.4% in Pennsylvania[9][12][15] - Historical polling errors indicate that Trump's support was underestimated in previous elections, particularly in Wisconsin and Michigan, where he outperformed polls by 7.2% and 6.0% respectively in 2016 and 2020[7][11] - Current polling data shows Trump leading by 2.7% in Arizona, 2.6% in Georgia, and 1.7% in Nevada, suggesting he may maintain an advantage in these states[19][23][26] Group 3: Election Implications - If Trump secures the four southern swing states and Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin, the electoral vote count would be Trump 268 and Harris 251, making Pennsylvania the decisive state[31] - The election results may be delayed due to the counting of mail-in ballots, which could affect the final outcome, similar to the 2020 election[32] - Market volatility is expected to increase as the election date approaches, with investors advised to be cautious of potential outcomes beyond the anticipated Trump victory[34]