当前经济与政策思考：弱非农影响有限

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 12,000 non-farm jobs in October, a significant drop from the revised previous value of 223,000, indicating a cooling labor market[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.14%, up from 4.05%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.37% month-on-month[11] - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 2.8%, slightly down from 3.0% in the previous quarter, with private consumption contributing 2.46 percentage points to GDP growth[13][14] Market Reactions - The VIX index rose, indicating increased market volatility, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased, reflecting market expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November[1] - The FedWatch tool shows a 98.9% probability of a rate cut, with a 1.1% chance of no change, suggesting strong market consensus on monetary easing[34] Global Economic Trends - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year in Q3, slightly above expectations, with Germany's growth at 0.2% and France's at 1.3%[20] - Japan's political uncertainty following the recent elections and the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates at 0.25% reflects a cautious economic outlook[21] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October was reported at 108.7, indicating stable consumer sentiment amid rising inflation concerns[12] - Retail sales growth in the U.S. increased by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting robust consumer spending despite rising interest rates[28]