宏观观察2024年第51期（总第562期）：房地产政策效果评估及市场前景展望＊

Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have led to positive changes, with both new and second-hand housing markets showing varying degrees of recovery[2] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points, which will lower the cost of home loans for many households[4] - The minimum down payment for second homes has been reduced from 25% to 15%, easing the financial burden on buyers[4] Market Trends - The overall real estate market is anticipated to be in a bottoming phase in the short term, with a focus on improving liquidity for real estate companies and reducing the financial pressure on homebuyers[2] - From September 25 to October 30, the average daily sales area of new homes in major cities improved by over 50% compared to the previous period, although it remains below 2023 levels[9] - The average daily transaction volume of second-hand homes exceeded the same period last year, with increases of 71.29% in first-tier cities[10] Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the recent policies will be closely monitored, as initial signs indicate a potential slowdown in market recovery[12] - The implementation of policies such as the expansion of special bonds for land acquisition and the adjustment of tax rates is expected to further support the real estate market[8] - The anticipated increase in disposable income from reduced mortgage payments is projected to boost consumer spending by approximately 929.87 billion yuan annually[19]