Zoomlion(SZ:000157) Guotou Securities·2024-11-04 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a 12-month target price of 8.58 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.13 CNY [4][9]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue but showed a steady improvement in profitability, with a net profit increase of 9.95% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2024 [1]. - The domestic sales structure is notably differentiated, while overseas business has shown significant growth, with overseas revenue increasing by 35.42% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of total revenue [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from policy-driven infrastructure recovery in the domestic market and stable growth in overseas markets, particularly in emerging markets [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 34.386 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.18%, and a net profit of 3.139 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.95% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.850 billion CNY, down 13.89% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 4.42% year-on-year to 851 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 28.52% and 9.65%, respectively, reflecting an increase of 1.06 percentage points and 4.55 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company has implemented effective cost control measures, leading to a steady increase in gross and net profit margins [2]. - The total expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 18.50%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising primarily due to increased share-based payment costs [2]. Cash Flow and Asset Quality - The operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2024 was 1.208 billion CNY, up 5.74% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 81.57% in Q3 [3]. - The quality of assets has improved, with accounts receivable decreasing by 3.985 billion CNY and inventory decreasing by 1.9 billion CNY compared to the end of Q1 2024 [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 44.56 billion CNY, 51.92 billion CNY, and 61.44 billion CNY, with growth rates of -5.3%, 16.5%, and 18.3%, respectively [3]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 3.98 billion CNY, 5.70 billion CNY, and 7.09 billion CNY, with growth rates of 13.5%, 43.3%, and 24.3% [3][10].