Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Haitong Securities·2024-11-04 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][9] Core Views - The report highlights that Yong'an Futures, as a leading player in the domestic futures industry, is expected to gain continuous growth momentum amid rapid industry development. The increasing industry concentration will further solidify the company's competitive advantage, justifying a premium for being a market leader [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 18.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 420 million yuan, down 25.0% year-on-year, resulting in an EPS of 0.29 yuan and an ROE of 3.3%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][10] - In Q3 alone, the operating revenue was 6.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year [6][10] - As of the end of Q3, the net assets attributable to shareholders were 12.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% from the beginning of the year and a slight increase of 0.1% from mid-year [6][10] Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates a significant decline in net commission and interest income, while investment income showed a notable increase. Specifically, net commission income for the first three quarters was 380 million yuan, down 34.8% year-on-year, and for Q3, it was 150 million yuan, down 34.9% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to low market transaction volumes, with Q3 domestic futures market transaction volume and value down 11.0% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively [7] - Interest income for the first three quarters was 370 million yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, with Q3 showing 120 million yuan, down 23.7% year-on-year. Conversely, investment income and fair value changes amounted to 570 million yuan, up 141% year-on-year, with Q3 showing 140 million yuan compared to a loss of 15 million yuan in the same period last year [7] - Other business income, primarily from basis trade and commodity sales, saw a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters and a 4.5% decline in Q3 [7] Expense Overview - Total expenses for the first three quarters were 18.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, accounting for a higher proportion of total revenue compared to the previous year. Q3 total expenses decreased by 3.0% year-on-year [8] - Business and management expenses decreased by 4.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a 2.0% decrease year-on-year. However, asset impairment losses increased significantly, with credit asset impairment losses at 130 million yuan compared to 30 million yuan in the previous year, and other asset impairment losses up 129% to 350 million yuan [8] Valuation and Future Outlook - The report maintains a valuation range of 40-42 times the estimated 2024 PE, corresponding to a fair value range of 16.56-17.39 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 34 times the estimated 2024 PE, supporting the "Outperform the Market" rating [9]