ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT(300308) 山西证券·2024-11-04 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating strong confidence in its future performance [2][5] Core Views - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI investment boom, with 2025 expected to see continued growth in AI-related investments [1] - The company has completed testing and certification for its 1.6T optical modules, with shipments expected to start in December [1] - The company is actively expanding production capacity domestically and in Thailand, with fixed assets increasing by 8.4% QoQ in Q3 [1] - Inventory value grew by 15.9% QoQ in Q3, reflecting strong expansion intentions [1] - The company is a leader in R&D for silicon photonics and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), with significant cost advantages in self-developed silicon photonic chips [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 6.51 billion yuan, up 115.3% YoY and 9.4% QoQ [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, up 104.4% YoY and 3.3% QoQ [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 17.31 billion yuan (+146.3% YoY), with net profit of 3.75 billion yuan (+189.6% YoY) [3] - The company's R&D expenses for the first three quarters reached 740 million yuan, a 57.4% YoY increase [1] Industry Trends and Outlook - The global AI optical module market remains highly prosperous, with expectations of rapid growth in the next two quarters due to increased 800G orders and 1.6T volume [4] - The company is expected to play a significant role in the CPO supply chain due to its expertise in silicon photonic engine packaging and understanding of end-user needs [4] - Trendforce estimates that Blackwell platform will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPUs in 2025, driving a 55% YoY increase in shipments [1] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are revised to 5.17/9.84/12.00 billion yuan (previously 5.32/9.63/11.31 billion yuan) [5] - 2024-2026 revenue is projected to be 23.29/43.05/48.43 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 117.3%/84.9%/12.5% [7] - 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted at 4.61/8.78/10.70 yuan [7] - ROE is expected to reach 26.6%/34.9%/31.3% in 2024-2026 [7] Market Performance - As of November 4, 2024, the stock closed at 143.15 yuan, with a 52-week range of 89.00-192.88 yuan [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at 160.50 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 159.72 billion yuan [1] - Basic EPS for Q3 2024 was 3.42 yuan, with ROE at 20.72% [1]