TLC(002466) 东吴证券·2024-11-04 09:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance aligns with market expectations, with Q1-3 2024 revenue at 10.1 billion yuan, down 70% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.7 billion yuan, down 170% year-on-year [2] - The company is gradually digesting high-priced inventory, leading to a continuous narrowing of losses [3] - The average FOB price in Q3 was 277 per ton [3] - The company expects to achieve a sales volume of over 100,000 tons in 2024, an increase of approximately 80% year-on-year [3] - Investment income remained stable, but operating cash flow saw a significant decline [4] - Due to high-priced inventory and the impact of SQM tax litigation, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards [5] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 40.449 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.396 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 66.93% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -5.846 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 180.11% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be -3.56 yuan per share in 2024 [1] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 49.24% in 2024, down from 84.99% in 2023 [11] Market Data - The closing price of Tianqi Lithium Industries is 36.17 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 59.36 billion yuan [7] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.36 [7] - The one-year price range is between 24.44 yuan and 60.98 yuan [7] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for Q1-3 2024 is projected at 4.2 billion yuan, down 79% year-on-year [4] - Capital expenditure for Q1-3 2024 is expected to be 3.7 billion yuan, an increase of 29% year-on-year [4] - The net increase in cash for 2024 is projected to be 1.232 billion yuan [12]