MOBILEYE GLOBAL（MBLY）：3Q24营收表现略超预期，下游库存继续走向正常化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobileye (MBLY.US) with a target price of $16.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% [2][6]. Core Insights - Mobileye's Q3 revenue was$ 486 million, a year-over-year decline of 8% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%, outperforming consensus estimates [2][11]. - The company expects continued strong cash flow and has confidence in its technological capabilities, particularly in AI and related technologies, despite lowering earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][3]. - The report highlights the normalization of inventory levels among downstream Tier 1 and OEM customers, with EyeQ chip shipments expected to recover significantly by 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue: $486 million, down 8% YoY, up 11% QoQ [11]. - Q3 2024 adjusted gross margin: 68.1%, down from 69.1% YoY [11]. - Full-year 2024 revenue guidance:$ 1.62 to $1.66 billion [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at$ 199 million, a significant decrease from previous estimates [12]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024E: $1.635 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 21% [5][12]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025E:$ 364 million, reflecting an 83% increase from 2024E [5][12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue growth rates, with 2025E expected to grow by 18% and 2026E by 23% [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report employs a DCF valuation method, maintaining a target price of $16.2, corresponding to a 2025E adjusted P/E ratio of 35.9x [4][15]. - The WACC is estimated at 8.0%, with a perpetual growth rate of 3% [4][13]. Market Expectations - The report outlines optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for Mobileye's stock price, with a bullish target of$ 18.8 and a bearish target of $11.7, reflecting varying expectations for revenue growth and market conditions [18].