JONHON(002179) 中原证券·2024-11-04 09:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AVIC Optoelectronics (002179) [1] Core Views - AVIC Optoelectronics achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.45% in Q3 2024, with a narrowing decline in net profit [1] - The company's overall orders have shown signs of recovery, and full-year performance is expected to grow [1] - The company's gross margin slightly declined, but cost control remained effective, maintaining stable profitability [1] - The company's military and civilian businesses are expected to sustain growth, driven by downstream demand in sectors such as military, communications, new energy vehicles, data centers, and photovoltaic energy storage [2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, AVIC Optoelectronics reported revenue of 14.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.23%, and net profit of 2.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.15% [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 4.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, while net profit was 845 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.14% [1] - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 36.61% and 18.83%, respectively, down by 2.18 and 0.98 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 2.1%, 5.64%, 8.82%, and -0.46%, respectively, with a total expense ratio of 16.1%, up 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The company's civil business focuses on strategic emerging industries, with rapid development in liquid cooling, achieving a compound growth rate of over 50% in the past five years [2] - The company is actively expanding its civil aircraft business and providing supporting products and technical services for domestic large aircraft [2] - The company is also developing low-altitude economy solutions and promoting low-altitude aircraft interconnection solutions [2] Industry Outlook - The aerospace industry's financial performance has shown marginal improvement, with orders gradually recovering [2] - With the 14th Five-Year Plan entering its final year, military orders are expected to recover and grow, releasing delayed orders from previous years [2] - The company's downstream industries, including military, communications, new energy vehicles, data centers, and photovoltaic energy storage, are expected to maintain steady demand growth [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report revises down the company's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 20.835 billion yuan, 24.931 billion yuan, and 28.764 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are revised down to 3.507 billion yuan, 4.373 billion yuan, and 5.149 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 26.13X, 20.96X, and 17.8X, indicating a relatively low valuation level [3] Historical Financial Data - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 20.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.75%, and net profit of 3.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.86% [4] - The company's gross margin and net margin in 2023 were 37.95% and 16.63%, respectively [11] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 16.29%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.11% [11]