Huachuang Securities·2024-11-04 09:16Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance was strong, with Q4 fundamentals expected to continue upward [1] - Q3 revenue reached 2,011 billion yuan, up 24% YoY and 14% QoQ [1] - Gross margin was 21.9%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY but up 3.2 percentage points QoQ [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 116 billion yuan, up 11% YoY and 28% QoQ [1] - Operating cash flow surged to 421 billion yuan, up 262 billion yuan YoY and 381 billion yuan QoQ [1] Business Performance - Q3 2024 wholesale sales reached 1.135 million units, up 38% YoY and 15% QoQ [2] - Average selling price per vehicle was 139,000 yuan, down 14,000 yuan YoY but up 3,000 yuan QoQ [2] - Gross profit per vehicle was 36,000 yuan, down 4,000 yuan YoY but up 5,000 yuan QoQ [2] - Net profit per vehicle was 9,000 yuan, down 2,000 yuan YoY but up 1,000 yuan QoQ [2] - October 2024 wholesale sales hit a new high of 503,000 units, up 67% YoY and 20% QoQ [2] Product Strategy - The company is focusing on adjusting its product structure upwards, leveraging the DM5.0 hybrid platform and intelligent driving for future growth [2] - In 2025, the company plans to target the mid-to-high-end market with new pure electric platforms and advanced autonomous driving technologies [2] - Overseas market expansion and production base development are progressing steadily [2] Financial Forecasts - Sales volume is expected to reach 4.32 million units in 2024, 5.24 million in 2025, and 6.04 million in 2026 [2] - Revenue is projected to be 7.615 trillion yuan in 2024, 10.176 trillion yuan in 2025, and 12.177 trillion yuan in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 400 billion yuan in 2024, 576 billion yuan in 2025, and 696 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - EPS is expected to be 13.75 yuan in 2024, 19.80 yuan in 2025, and 23.91 yuan in 2026 [2] Valuation - Target price for A-shares is set at 396.0 yuan, and for H-shares at 393.1 HKD [1] - The valuation is based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, implying a target market cap of 11.521 trillion yuan [2]