上峰水泥：2024年三季报点评报告：行业需求下滑业绩承压，三季度盈利能力有所改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in cement demand, but profitability has improved in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 404 million yuan, down 42.27% year-on-year. The cement and clinker sales totaled 15.0868 million tons, a decrease of 4.78% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, the company reported operating revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.71% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.05%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 234 million yuan, an increase of 38.09% year-on-year and 49.53% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company maintained strong profitability despite industry challenges, with a gross margin of 26.71% and a net profit margin of 9.89%. The average return on equity (ROE) was 4.53% [1] - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 5.872 billion yuan, 6.303 billion yuan, and 6.768 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 568 million yuan, 709 million yuan, and 812 million yuan for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.8, 11.8, and 10.3 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong regional presence along the Yangtze River Economic Belt and has expanded into areas such as Xinjiang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Guangxi. It possesses ample limestone resource reserves and is extending its business into aggregates, environmental protection, and logistics, which opens up further growth opportunities. The new economic equity investment business is also contributing to revenue [1][2][4]