食品饮料行业周报：白酒三季报增速放缓，大众品成本改善

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.39% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.29 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 first-level sectors [4][15] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the liquor industry, with Q3 revenue growth slowing down to 0.73% year-on-year and net profit growth at 2.05%, indicating a significant deceleration compared to the first half of the year [5] - The beer sector is seeing continuous cost improvements, with a potential recovery in consumption scenarios, although Q3 revenue was under pressure due to weak dining consumption [6] - The snack segment maintained rapid revenue and profit growth in Q3, benefiting from channel expansion and declining raw material costs [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end liquor and regional leaders, suggesting a focus on companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was characterized by a 0.39% decline, with most sub-sectors also experiencing downturns [4][15] - Top gainers included Zhu Laoliu, Youyou Food, and Jia Jia Food, with increases of 48.28%, 29.19%, and 27.84% respectively, while the largest declines were seen in Mogao Co., Richen Co., and Xiangpiaopiao, with drops of 21.34%, 13.17%, and 10.74% respectively [4][15] Liquor Industry - The liquor sector's Q3 performance showed a significant slowdown, with high-end liquor maintaining stable performance while mid-tier brands faced pressure [5] - The report notes that major liquor companies are focusing on controlling inventory and optimizing supply-demand structures, with a strong dividend plan from Wuliangye for 2024-2026 [5] - Current prices for major liquor brands show slight adjustments, with Moutai's price at 2350 yuan, down 10 yuan week-on-week [5][19] Beer Industry - The beer sector is facing challenges with a 1.5% decline in production year-on-year, but cost reductions in raw materials like barley are improving profitability [6] - The report anticipates a recovery in beer consumption driven by policy incentives, with a long-term trend towards premiumization [6] Snack and Other Consumer Goods - The snack segment is expected to perform well in Q4 due to strong product offerings and channel expansion [7] - The restaurant supply chain is highlighted as a growth area, benefiting from policy stimuli and the need for cost control among restaurant operators [7] - The dairy segment is seeing a shift towards health-oriented products, with a recommendation to focus on companies enhancing product structures and direct-to-consumer channels [7] Key Company Updates - Notable company performances include: - Salted Fish's revenue growth of 28.49% in Q3 [38] - Three squirrels achieving a 56.46% increase in revenue [38] - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing solid growth in their financial results [37][39]