Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Fudan (1385.HK) [2][3] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 1.99% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue of 2.684 billion RMB. However, the smart meter chip business saw a significant growth of 27% year-on-year in Q3 2024, becoming a key driver for performance [2] - The overall gross margin decreased by 9.53 percentage points year-on-year to 55.05% for the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to intense market competition and price reductions to maintain market share [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 427 million RMB, down 34.3% year-on-year, with Q3 2024 net profit dropping 60.6% year-on-year to 79 million RMB [2] - The company is actively exploring new markets and applications, particularly in the security and identification chip sector, and has begun to establish overseas channels for financial card products [2] - The non-volatile memory business is expected to recover as the storage industry gradually improves, with a projected revenue increase in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.684 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.99% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 890 million RMB, down 5.55% year-on-year [2] - The smart meter chip business revenue in Q3 2024 was 98 million RMB, up 27% year-on-year, driven by increased demand from grid tenders [2] Profitability - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 55.05%, down 9.53 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 52.15%, down 7.61 percentage points [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 427 million RMB, a decline of 34.3% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9% in Q3 2024 [2] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its market presence in the security and identification chip sector, with Q3 revenue of 206 million RMB, down 9% year-on-year due to price competition [2] - The non-volatile memory sector is anticipated to recover, with a focus on industrial and consumer-grade products [2] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 519 million RMB and 789 million RMB, respectively, reflecting the competitive pressures [3] - The current share price of 15.52 HKD corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22x for 2024 and 15x for 2025, with expectations of recovery in the FPGA and memory sectors [3]
上海复旦：2024年三季报业绩点评：激烈市场竞争导致短期价格承压，公司积极开拓新产品新市场