XIAOMI(HK:01810) Orient Securities·2024-11-04 10:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 29.40 HKD based on a 27x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The company's smartphone shipments continue to grow year-on-year, with a 3% increase to 42.8 million units in Q3 2024, maintaining a 14% market share globally [1]. - The electric vehicle SU7 achieved over 20,000 deliveries in October, with expectations to meet the annual target of 100,000 units ahead of schedule [1]. - The launch of the Xiaomi Surge OS 2 marks a significant step towards an "AI full ecosystem," featuring innovations in system architecture and AI capabilities [1]. Financial Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.79, 1.00, and 1.26 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 347.3 billion CNY in 2024, 396.9 billion CNY in 2025, and 461.4 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 28% in 2024 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 20.9% in 2024, with net profit margins improving to 5.7% [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 91.98% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5]. - The stock price as of November 1, 2024, was 27.3 HKD, with a 52-week range of 27.45 to 11.84 HKD [5].