Mtalco(601677) 光大证券·2024-11-04 10:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance saw a decline due to falling aluminum prices and domestic-international price discrepancies, despite achieving the highest quarterly sales volume of the year [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 83.41 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, but a net profit of 3.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.65% [1][2]. - The import policy for deformed scrap aluminum has been relaxed, enhancing the company's sources for recycled aluminum [2]. - The inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in the national carbon market is approaching, which will significantly benefit recycled aluminum production [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and developing new products to diversify its customer base [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 236.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.59%, and a net profit of 14.11 billion yuan, also up by 21.58% [1]. - In Q3, the company sold 382,200 tons of aluminum plates, strips, foils, and profiles, a 2.8% increase from the previous quarter [2]. Market Dynamics - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 was 19,600 yuan per ton, down 4.7% from Q2 [2]. - The price difference between LME and domestic aluminum prices affected the company's foreign trade profits, with average price differences of +57.3 yuan/ton in Q2 and -125.3 yuan/ton in Q3 [2]. Strategic Developments - The company aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of aluminum plates and strips and 1.4 million tons of recycled aluminum, with recycled aluminum expected to account for about 70% of raw material sources [3]. - The company is actively developing clients in sectors such as photovoltaic inverters, automotive display screens, and satellite components [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been raised to 1.8 billion, 2.02 billion, and 2.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times based on the current stock price [4].