东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241104

Core Views - The report highlights an improved market sentiment driven by economic recovery and better asset quality expectations, particularly in the banking sector, which is expected to yield absolute returns [2][3] - The banking sector is seeing a shift in focus towards cyclical and high-growth stocks, with a recommendation to pay attention to leading banks in economically strong regions [4] - The report suggests that the insurance sector is increasingly favoring high-dividend stocks, indicating a stable demand for such assets [3][4] Banking Sector Analysis - As of the end of September, active public funds have increased their allocation to the banking sector, with a total of 446.1 billion yuan, representing 2.78% of their portfolio, marking a slight increase from the previous quarter [2] - Northbound capital has significantly increased its holdings in the banking sector, with a net inflow of 13.57 billion yuan in Q3 2024, making it the top sector for capital inflow [2] - The report notes that the banking sector is benefiting from the rapid expansion of ETFs, particularly those tracking the CSI 300 index, which has seen a total scale of 2.79 trillion yuan, a 102% year-on-year increase [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cyclical and high-growth stocks in the short term, particularly those linked to economic recovery, such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [4] - For the medium to long term, the report suggests investing in stable high-dividend stocks, particularly state-owned banks, as they are expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [4] - The report anticipates that the banking sector will see a gradual stabilization in credit growth and improvement in asset quality due to new government policies [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining indicates a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 22.93% and a net profit increase of 112.59% for Q3 2024 [4][5] - The company has successfully reduced production costs, with average sales costs for gold at 281.55 yuan per gram, significantly lower than the global average [5][6] - The report projects that the company's gold production will continue to grow, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% from 2024 to 2026 [7][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The report forecasts that Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining will achieve revenues of 9.897 billion yuan, 11.299 billion yuan, and 13.689 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.704 billion yuan, 2.091 billion yuan, and 2.430 billion yuan [8][9] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the company, citing its strong growth potential and favorable market conditions for gold [9] Real Estate Sector Overview - The report indicates a significant recovery in the real estate sector, with the top 100 real estate companies experiencing a reduced year-on-year sales decline of 34.8% in the first ten months of 2024 [12][13] - The central government's policies are shifting from stabilization to promoting recovery in the real estate market, suggesting a more proactive approach to support the sector [12][15] - The report highlights that the market is seeing increased investment in real estate stocks, with a notable rise in the market value of real estate funds [14][15]