煤炭行业专题报告：24Q3板块归母净利环比+4%，动力煤更具韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing resilience in performance despite a decline in overall profits, with a notable recovery in Q3 2024 for certain companies, particularly in the thermal coal sector [5][6][21]. - The average profit per ton of coal decreased to 118 RMB in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline compared to previous quarters [5][16]. - The report highlights a significant portion of companies facing losses, with 46% of the industry classified as loss-making as of Q3 2024 [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Profit Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the total profit of the coal industry decreased by 22% year-on-year, with the profit per ton of coal at 132 RMB, down 21% year-on-year [5][16]. - Q3 2024 saw a profit per ton of coal at 118 RMB, down 24 RMB from the previous quarter [5][16]. 2. Q3 2024 Financial Analysis - The combined net profit of 35 sample companies reached 404 million RMB in Q3 2024, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous quarter [21]. - The overall revenue and costs for these companies decreased by 7.1% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a gross margin of 28.8% [21]. - The report indicates that the performance of thermal coal companies remains relatively stable, with a net profit increase of 9% in Q3 2024 [6][21]. 3. Debt and Cash Flow Analysis - The industry's total debt reached a peak of 4.7 trillion RMB, the highest since 2015, while the asset-liability ratio slightly decreased to 59.78% [6]. - Operating cash flow per share averaged 1.25 RMB in Q3 2024, showing a slight decline year-on-year [6]. 4. Market Supply and Price Outlook - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices in Q4 2024, with thermal coal prices expected to stabilize around 870 RMB per ton for the year [7]. - The report notes that the coal market is characterized by a "not-so-weak off-season" and "not-so-strong peak season" trend [7]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-quality thermal coal companies that have shown resilience in Q3 2024, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Datong Coal [8]. - It also highlights cyclical trading opportunities in coking coal and companies benefiting from coal capacity reserve policies and technological upgrades [8].