宏观周报2024年11月第一周

Economic Indicators - GDP growth for Q3 2024 is projected at 2.8%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.9%[3] - October PMI for manufacturing increased to 50.1, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[9] - October CPI and PPI data are not specified but are part of the economic forecast[1] Domestic Market Insights - The domestic market is currently in a phase of policy negotiation and verification of fundamental effects, with increased market divergence and trading volume[2] - The production sector shows seasonal expansion driven by new growth stabilization policies, while demand remains slightly improved but not at seasonal levels[2] - The bond market is experiencing overall yield declines, with significant net liquidity injection by the central bank exceeding 600 billion yuan for the month[2] International Market Context - U.S. employment data shows resilience, with non-farm payrolls adding only 12,000 jobs in October, the smallest increase since December 2020, against an expectation of 113,000[13] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.1%[3] - The upcoming U.S. presidential election introduces uncertainty, impacting market sentiment and trading strategies[3] Risks and Considerations - Potential political instability from U.S. election outcomes and unexpected hawkish shifts from the Federal Reserve pose risks to market stability[3] - The bond market's short-term interest rates may rebound, with a recommendation for a neutral duration strategy in light of upcoming policy shifts[2]