HPI(SH:600011) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-04 12:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set to achieve a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 184.40 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.62%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.41 billion yuan, down 17.12% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 6.87% to 10.04 billion yuan [1][3]. - The company's electricity generation in Q3 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase, with a total of 341.24 billion kWh generated in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.14%. The Q3 generation alone was 130.56 billion kWh, up 3.43% year-on-year, driven by increased electricity demand during peak summer periods [2][3]. - The average on-grid settlement price for electricity was 496.27 yuan per MWh, a decrease of 2.63% year-on-year. Despite the drop in price, the company managed to reduce its operating costs by 7.12% to 154.84 billion yuan, primarily due to lower fuel costs [3][4]. - The company added 5.3 GW of controllable power generation capacity in the first three quarters, with significant contributions from wind and solar energy, totaling 3.8 GW and 1.5 GW respectively. The total controllable generation capacity reached 140.7 GW as of September 30, 2024 [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is revised to 11.70 billion, 13.50 billion, and 15.50 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [5]. - The financial metrics indicate a net profit margin of 7.24%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, and an EBITDA of 55.65 billion yuan projected for 2024 [5][8]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 573.92 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 71.68% [8].