Keeson(SH:603610) Southwest Securities·2024-11-04 13:00Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company麒盛科技 (603610) but suggests to "continue to pay attention" to the company due to stable customer relationships and active expansion of overseas and domestic businesses [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 6.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 2.22 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19% to 150 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 22.2% to 170 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin is under pressure, with an overall gross margin of 33.6% for the first three quarters, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The third quarter gross margin was 34.8%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, particularly with the construction of a factory in Vietnam, which is expected to improve profitability from international operations [1]. - The company maintains a high customer concentration with stable partnerships, particularly with major clients like 泰普尔丝涟 (TSI) and 舒达席梦思 (SSB) [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 66.04 million yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items dropped by 58.5% to 48.09 million yuan [1]. - The overall net profit margin for the first three quarters was 6.8%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the Q3 net profit margin was 8.6%, up 1.1 percentage points due to significant reductions in investment losses [1]. Operational Highlights - The company has increased its construction projects by 68.6% as of Q3 2024, including the 4 million smart bed headquarters project and the Vietnam factory [1]. - The overseas revenue proportion remains high, with overseas revenue for 2022, 2023, and H1 2024 being 2.4 billion, 2.77 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 94.3%, 92.5%, and 93.9% of total revenue [1]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts EPS of 0.54 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.76 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [2]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue growth, projecting a revenue increase of 14.9% in 2025 and 11.63% in 2026 [2].