COSCO SHIPPING Developmet(601866) 西南证券·2024-11-04 13:03Investment Rating - The report gives a "Hold" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][38]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in net profit due to rising container demand, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins in the third quarter of 2024 [1][28]. - The company is focused on integrating shipping and logistics services, with a strong emphasis on container manufacturing, leasing, and shipping operations [2][12]. - The outlook for container demand remains positive, supported by global trade growth and the replacement of old containers [23][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 19.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.381 billion yuan, up 14.7% [1]. - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 8.112 billion yuan, a 68.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit surged to 486 million yuan, reflecting a 368.5% growth [1][28]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in three segments: container manufacturing, container leasing, and shipping leasing. Container manufacturing accounted for 83.18% of revenue in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit contribution of 24.89% [2][14]. - Container leasing generated 21.9% of revenue with a gross profit margin of 44.68%, while shipping leasing contributed 9.99% of revenue and 32.65% of gross profit [2][14]. Market Outlook - Global trade is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2024, which will positively impact container demand. The company anticipates that the total production and sales of containers will exceed 9 million TEU in 2024-2025 [23][17]. - The shipping market is recovering, leading to increased demand for container leasing as shipping companies look to expand their fleets amid limited new shipbuilding capacity [24][23]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed cash dividends and announced a share buyback plan of 40 million to 80 million A-shares at a maximum price of 3.59 yuan per share [3][32]. - The cash dividend per share for 2024 is set at 0.019 yuan, following a previous distribution of 0.032 yuan per share in 2023 [3][32]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to see container sales increase significantly over the next few years, with expected revenues from container manufacturing growing by 183.5% in 2024 [35]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.13 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.25 yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [35][38].