轮胎行业研究框架专题报告：短期指标精研与长期趋势洞察

Industry Overview - The tire industry has shifted from capacity expansion to technological innovation, brand building, energy conservation, and new energy vehicle development, driven by policy support and industrial upgrading [11][12][14] - Key policies affecting the tire industry include environmental regulations, trade policies, and technological advancements, which influence export earnings and overseas factory construction [3] - The industry is moving towards green transformation and internationalization, with a focus on circular economy and sustainable practices [11][14] Key Indicators and Trends - Raw material prices, particularly natural and synthetic rubber, have a strong negative correlation with tire company profitability [4][26] - Sea freight costs directly impact export competitiveness, with companies optimizing supply chain management through overseas factory expansion [4][31] - Domestic tire companies are increasing their global market share through capacity expansion and improved product quality [4][37] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Semi-steel tire production and operating rates reached record highs in 2024, with a 7.87% year-on-year increase in production [33][34] - Full-steel tire production faced pressure due to real estate and logistics impacts, with a 2.61% year-on-year decline in production [36] - Overseas demand accounts for over 70% of total demand, with logistics and vehicle production being key indicators of tire demand growth [5][39][41] Cost Structure and Raw Materials - Domestic tire companies have lower labor and management costs compared to overseas competitors, but face higher raw material costs [24][25] - Natural rubber prices are influenced by supply constraints, with ANRPC member countries experiencing a 2.48% year-on-year decline in production in September 2024 [27] - Synthetic rubber prices are driven by upstream raw material costs, with butadiene prices significantly impacting synthetic rubber prices in 2024 [28] Overseas Expansion and Trade Policies - Chinese tire companies are expanding overseas production to avoid trade barriers, with significant investments in Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America [17][20] - The US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on tires from various countries, with Chinese companies facing rates ranging from 12.33% to 48.39% [18][19] - Overseas factories benefit from favorable tax policies and lower labor costs, particularly in Southeast Asia [17][20] Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Domestic tire companies are gaining market share as international giants exit the Chinese market, particularly in the full-steel tire segment [37] - The rise of new energy vehicles is creating new demand for tires, with domestic companies successfully supplying nearly half of the top-selling new energy models in 2023 [54][56] - Brand value and product innovation are becoming increasingly important, with companies like Sailun and Linglong making significant strides in brand recognition and technological advancements [53][54] Historical Performance of Leading Companies - Leading tire companies such as Michelin, Goodyear, and Bridgestone have shown consistent growth in revenue and EPS, driven by technological innovations and strategic acquisitions [58][60][64] - Domestic companies like Sailun, Linglong, and Sentury have demonstrated strong growth trajectories, with significant expansions in overseas production and market share [66][69][71][75]