AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA(601288) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 21:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Agricultural Bank of China [4][3]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China exceeded expectations in Q3 2024 performance, with revenue growth accelerating quarter by quarter and net profit growth leading among state-owned banks, indicating strong performance quality [3]. - The net profit growth forecasts for Agricultural Bank of China for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 3.64%, 4.32%, and 4.56%, respectively, with a target price raised to 5.51 yuan, corresponding to a 0.75x PB for 2024 [3][4]. - The bank's Q3 2024 revenue growth was 3.4% year-on-year, with net interest income growth at 2.6%, driven by stabilized interest margins [3]. - The bank's total assets grew by 12.5% year-on-year as of Q3 2024, with loans increasing by 10.5% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 694.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 269.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase [3][10]. - The bank's net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.45%, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year [3]. Asset Quality - As of Q3 2024, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.32%, unchanged from Q2, with a provision coverage ratio of 302.4% [3][10]. - The bank's risk compensation ability remains high, with a provision-to-loan ratio of 3.99% [3]. Growth and Expansion - The bank's total assets reached approximately 39.87 trillion yuan, with loans totaling about 22.61 trillion yuan and deposits at approximately 28.90 trillion yuan [6][10]. - The bank's retail loan segment saw a net increase of 996 billion yuan in Q3 2024, while corporate loans decreased by 73 billion yuan [3].