YUNNAN BAIYAO(000538) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 21:36Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating with a target price of 69.39 RMB [3][4] Core Views - Performance in line with expectations, with continued improvement in quality and efficiency [2][3] - Revenue for 2024Q1-3 reached 29.915 billion RMB (+0.76%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.327 billion RMB (+5.03%), and non-GAAP net profit was 4.265 billion RMB (+10.68%) [3] - Q3 revenue was 9.460 billion RMB (+0.86%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.138 billion RMB (-12.16%), and non-GAAP net profit was 1.130 billion RMB (+1.23%) [3] - Maintains EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 2.57/2.87/3.15 RMB, with a 25X PE ratio for 2025 [3] Financial Performance - Gross margin for 2024Q3 was 26.47% (-0.51pct YoY), net margin was 12.05% (-1.77pct YoY), and non-GAAP net margin was 11.94% (+0.04pct YoY) [3] - Sales/management expense ratios for 2024Q3 were 10.67%/1.82%, down by 1.02pct/0.43pct YoY, while financial expense ratio was 0.01% (+0.92pct YoY) [3] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 14 days to 79 days in 2024Q3, and operating cash flow for 2024Q1-3 was 4.073 billion RMB (+57.29% YoY) [3] Shareholder Returns - Plans a special dividend of 12.13 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 2.164 billion RMB, representing 50.02% of the net profit for the first three quarters [3] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include Pien Tze Huang (600436 SH), Tasly (600535 SH), and China Resources Sanjiu (000999 SZ), with average PE ratios of 24X for 2024E [12] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 39.666 billion RMB (+1.4% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.594 billion RMB (+12.2% YoY) [10] - ROE is expected to increase from 11.5% in 2024E to 13.5% in 2026E, with EPS rising from 2.57 RMB in 2024E to 3.15 RMB in 2026E [10]