交运行业2024三季报业绩综述：航空超预期，内需犹可期

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector experienced better-than-expected performance in Q3 2024, driven by strong international line revenues and currency exchange gains, despite a decrease in profit margins due to increased volume and reduced prices [5] - The express delivery sector saw a significant increase in package volume, with a total of 1,237.7 million packages delivered from January to September 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22% [5] - The shipping sector benefited from strong external demand, with the foreign trade container shipping index (CCFI) increasing by 127% year-on-year in Q3 2024, leading to substantial revenue growth for major shipping companies [6] - The road and port sectors showed improvement, with strong container throughput and stable highway traffic, while railway profits fell short of expectations [7] Summary by Sections Aviation - Q3 is the peak season for the aviation industry, with a 1.7% appreciation of the RMB contributing to exchange gains, leading to better-than-expected earnings for major airlines [12] - Major airlines reported revenues for Q3 2024: Air China at 48.6 billion, China Southern at 49.9 billion, and China Eastern at 38.4 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 6% for each [11][12] - The overall passenger load factor improved, with significant increases in capacity utilization across major airlines [14] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector benefited from the rapid growth of live-streaming e-commerce, with a total revenue of 1 trillion yuan from January to September 2024, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase [5] - Major express companies reported profits per package, with YTO Express at 0.14 yuan, Yunda at 0.06 yuan, and Shentong at 0.04 yuan, exceeding expectations [5] Shipping - The shipping sector saw a significant increase in demand, with the foreign trade container shipping index (CCFI) rising by 127% year-on-year in Q3 2024, indicating strong external demand [6] - The oil shipping market faced challenges due to OPEC+ production cuts and lower-than-expected imports from China, leading to a decline in VLCC rates by 11% year-on-year [6][21] - Major shipping companies reported mixed results, with China Merchants Energy's Q3 revenue at 60.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 12% [23] Road and Port - The highway traffic remained stable, with Q3 toll revenue showing better performance compared to the first half of the year [7] - Port container throughput increased, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% from January to August 2024 [7] - Railway passenger volume increased by 7% year-on-year in Q3, although profits were lower than expected due to rising costs [7]