集运行业跟踪更新报告：淡季停航积极挺价，或将助力长协谈判

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the shipping industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][11]. Core Insights - The shipping industry has seen a resurgence in market conditions since 2024, driven by the red sea detour and inventory replenishment in Europe and the US, leading to significant profits in Q3 [2][3]. - Shipping companies are actively suspending services to support pricing, which may aid in long-term contract negotiations [2][3]. - Future market trends will depend on export levels and capacity absorption [3]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - In 2024, the shipping market has rebounded, with freight rates soaring in the first half of the year. The situation in the Red Sea has increased risks for the Suez Canal, prompting shipping companies to reroute, which has added approximately 30% to the distance on Asia-Europe routes and reduced effective capacity by about 10% across the industry [3]. - Freight rates for European routes have risen to 60% of their historical highs from 2022, while US routes are nearing peak levels [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: The gap from rerouting is gradually decreasing, with an expected 11% increase in container ships in 2024. As of October, nearly 9% of new ships have been delivered, while only 0.3% have been scrapped [3]. - Demand: The traditional peak season for US and European routes typically begins in July and ends in October-November. However, high freight rates may suppress demand for low-margin goods, leading to a limited increase in cargo volume during Q3 [3]. Profitability Outlook - Despite a drop in freight rates during the traditional peak season, the average quarterly price remains significantly higher year-on-year, indicating a trend of increasing profitability. For instance, COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a net profit of 21.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [3]. - Recent freight rate rebounds, particularly a 26% increase in European routes over two weeks, are attributed to shipping companies' efforts to maintain pricing [3]. Future Trends - The shipping industry's future performance will hinge on export levels and the absorption of shipping capacity. The concentration of major players is expected to enhance pricing power, while the ongoing trend of larger vessels will continue to exert structural supply pressure on the market [3]. - Beneficiaries identified include COSCO Shipping Holdings, SITC International Holdings, and Jinjiang Shipping, with sustained "Overweight" ratings for China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Industry [3].