China National Gold (SH:600916) Wanlian Securities·2024-11-05 01:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company outperformed the industry in the first three quarters, with Q3 revenue slightly declining by 2.78%. For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 46.575 billion yuan (up 12.73% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 746 million yuan (up 0.64% year-on-year) [1][2] - The company's profitability has declined year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 0.03 percentage points to 4.20% and a net margin decrease of 0.19 percentage points to 1.61% [2] - In Q3, revenue from gold and jewelry decreased year-on-year, while service fee income surged significantly. The company plans to add 179 franchise stores in Q4 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 46.575 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 746 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.64%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 11.419 billion yuan, down 2.78% year-on-year, and net profit was 151 million yuan, down 25.71% year-on-year [1][3] - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 4.20%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.61%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The gold and jewelry segment generated revenue of 46.064 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 12.57% year-on-year, while service fee income reached 25.8 million yuan, up 171.29% year-on-year. In Q3, the gold and jewelry segment revenue was 11.289 billion yuan, down 3.15% year-on-year, and service fee income was 10.1 million yuan, up 149.52% year-on-year [3] - The company adjusted its store strategy, ending Q3 2024 with a total of 4,215 stores, with a net decrease of 3 direct stores and 39 franchise stores. The company plans to open 2 direct stores and 179 franchise stores in Q4 [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down, with expected EPS of 0.56, 0.66, and 0.73 yuan per share, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios based on the closing price on October 31, 2024, are 16, 13, and 12 times [4] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance as a large state-owned enterprise in the gold and jewelry sector, with plans to launch new products and accelerate store openings in Q4, which may create a second growth curve through the diamond industry chain [4]